Our real estate markets have surprised many on the upside this year– especially the Melbourne and Sydney property markets but now that this upward phase of the property cycle has lasted more than four years and with prices being so high, what lies ahead, especially as our banks keep tightening the screws on lending?
As Michael Yardney, CEO of Metropole Property Strategists delved back into his memory to see what lessons he could learn from past property cycles for us, he realised that he’d probably learned more from the many mistakes he had made than from the things he got right.
Now there’s a powerful lesson in itself! Anyway…here are 4 key lessons Yardney wishes he’d learned earlier in his investment journey:
Firstly, the economy and our property markets move in cycles.
And the main cause behind these cycles is that we’re human and tend to share the general optimism or pessimism of others.
It’s a common fallacy that Australian property cycles last 7 – 10 years. They vary in length and are affected by a myriad of social and economic factors and then, at times, the government lengthens or shortens the cycle by changing economic policies or interest rates.
For example, the current property cycle is being prolonged by a period of historically low interest rates. Yet it’s my observation that investment markets often “overshoot.” That is, they move by more than changes in the fundamental influences would seem to require – on the upside as well as the downside.
Take the Perth property market which experienced significant growth (overshooting its fundamentals) during the recent mining boom. And now home prices have fallen 20% from their market peak in Perth and are likely to fall further.
The market is usually wrong about the stage of the cycle.
“Crowd psychology” influences people’s investment decisions, often to their detriment.
Investors tend to be most optimistic near the peak of the cycle, at a time when they should be the most cautious and they’re the most pessimistic when all the doom and gloom is in the media near the bottom of the cycle, when there is the least downside.
Market sentiment is one of the key drivers of property cycles and one of the reasons why our markets overreact, overshooting the mark during booms and getting too depressed during slumps.
Remember that each property boom sets us up for the next downturn, just as each downturn sets the scene for the next upswing.
There is not one property market
While many people generalise about “the property market” there are many submarkets around Australia.
The fact is, each state is at a different stage of its own property cycle and within each state the markets are segmented by geography, price points and type of property.
For example, the top end of the market will perform differently to the new home buyer’s market or the investor segment or the median priced established property sector.
And while there is an oversupply of CBD high rise off the plan apartments in Brisbane and Melbourne, there are more buyers looking for homes than there are properties on the market in the middle ring suburbs.
We need to allow for the X factor
When most Australians here about ‘the X factor’ they think about a talent show on TV. However, ‘the X factor’ is also talked about in the less glittery world of economic forecasting.
Economists refer to ‘the X factor’ when an unforeseen event or situation blows all their carefully laid forecasts away. More recently Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor and author, popularized the term Black Swan events for these deviations from the expected.
Yardney states, he first came across this concept many years ago when distinguished economics commentator, Dr. Don Stammer, used to try and predict the X Factor for the forthcoming year in the January edition of the now defunct BRW magazine.
Of course, by definition the X factor is unforeseen, so you can’t really predict it. But it was a little game he used to play and then review his prophecy 12 months later.
And it is a game I also took up many years ago and have had fun with over the years.
These X-factors can be negative (the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008) or positive (the China driven resources boom of 2010-12) and it can be local or from abroad (the US subprime mortgage crisis of 2008.)
One of the X factors for 2016 was how interest rates dropped to historic lows. It wasn’t that long ago that most economists were expecting a rise in rates by now
These X factors affect the economy at large, which of course affects our property markets, but our property markets also have their own specific X factors – unforeseen events that affect the best laid plans and predictions like APRA’s unprecedented restriction of bank lending to investors.
So the lesson is while it’s important to take a long term view of the economy and our property markets, you also need to allow for uncertainty and surprises by only holding first class assets diversified over a number of property markets and having patience.
2015 – Negative interest rates in Europe
2014 Collapse in oil prices during severe tensions in middle east
2013 Confusion on US central bank “taper” of bond purchases
2012 The extent of investors’ hunt for yield
2011 Continuing problems with European government debt
2010 European government debt crisis begins
2009 The resilience of our economy despite the GFC
2008 The near-meltdown in banking systems
2006 Big changes to superannuation
2004 Sustained hike in oil prices
2001 September 11 terrorist attacks
1997 Asian financial crisis
1991 Sustainable collapse of inflation
1990 Iraq invasion of Kuwait
1989 Collapse of communism
1988 Boom in world economy despite Black Monday
1987 Black Monday collapse in shares
1986 “Banana Republic” comment by Paul Keating
1985 Collapse of $A after MX missile crisis
1983 Free float of Australian dollar
Now it’s your turn to play the game and predict the coming year’s X-Factor.